LeafSpring Market Explorer

Market Explorer

LeafSpring

Drop a pin anywhere in Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, the Carolinas, or Texas. The LeafSpring lens is fitted to revenue per seat across 13 LeafSpring schools.

Internal · LeafSpring team · Not for franchisees or prospects

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Reading 53,000 block groups and 39,000 licensed providers

This takes a few seconds the first time.

About the data

Click to learn more: how the screen is built, sources, the lens, the heat map and what is not here

Rings. Every figure uses straight-line rings of 1, 3 and 5 miles around the pin, the same rings the fleet medians and the lens are built on, so there is no ring selector.

Demographics. ACS 2020–2024 5-year, block groups, apportioned to each circle by the share of the block group inside it. Counts add up; medians are household-weighted approximations. Straight-line rings, not drive time.

Supply. Each state's live licensing system, checked weekly (Data checks tab): IN FSSA, TX HHSC, NC DCDEE (incl. religious-sponsored GS 110-106), VA VDOE (incl. religious-exempt), SC DSS, KY kynect (statewide since Sept 23, 2026), and Ohio Child Care Search, where every program was looked up one by one on Sept 23, 2026 and center capacity read from each center's latest state inspection report. Ohio school-based preschools and Indiana exempt school programs have no published capacity; Indiana registered ministries are counted at 88 seats each, FSSA's own statewide average of recommended capacity by square footage (64,264 seats across 732 ministries, July 2026). Seats per 100 under-5 excludes school-age-only programs and Storied Youth Brands schools (BFA and LeafSpring).

Scores. The LeafSpring score is a weighted average of z-scores against LeafSpring's own schools, weights equal to each measure's Spearman correlation with performance, rescaled so 0 is the brand's median school and 1.0 is one standard deviation of the fleet. +0.5 or better reads like the brand's top third; below −0.5 reads like its weaker schools. Z-scores are capped just beyond the fleet's own range so a ring gets no credit for being richer or denser than anything the brand has proven.

LeafSpring lens. Performance = revenue per operating seat, 13 schools with a full year and a confirmed open date. Refit Sept 24, 2026 on ACS 2020–2024: median income at 5 mi (correlation +0.84), degrees per household at 5 mi (+0.69), median home value at 3 mi (+0.80), licensed seats per 100 under-5 within 1 mi (−0.65). Leave-one-out correlation +0.86 with the four features fixed, +0.62 when the feature screen is repeated inside each fold (the honest figure). It is a revenue-potential rating, not an occupancy forecast. Children under 5 enter only as a floor at the fewest children of any open school (1,378 at 3 mi; 3,753 at 5 mi; production parameters, Sept 24 refit). The closed Cedar Park school would have scored 5th of 15, so read a high grade as necessary, not sufficient.

Heat map. Every ¾-mile cell in the seven states scored on the LeafSpring lens (1/3/5-mile rings); cells with fewer than 300 children under 5 in 3 miles are blank. Dark green = strong (top third of LeafSpring schools), light green = viable (middle of the fleet), cream = below, pink = well below. Grades carry ±1: held out, a school lands within one grade of its actual grade 83–93% of the time and in the exact grade 29–50%, so treat neighboring grades as ties. Growth layers (population growth band, homes built 2020+, young-family arrivals, permits per 1,000 households of the issuing town) are context and enter no rating.

Not here. Retail anchors and elementary schools are shown for fleet schools only (no live map data on this page). Kentucky and Ohio outside the listed counties may be under-counted.

Data checks. Every Monday the provider list is compared with each state's live licensing system; results are in the Data checks tab.

Market Explorer

Reading 53,000 block groups and 39,000 licensed providers

Screen

Most similar LeafSpring rings

What surrounds this school

Who actually needs care here

Rings against the LeafSpring median

Growth

Supply by ring

Programs within 5 miles

Top markets for LeafSpring

Build a target territory

Fleet schools

Data checks